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Feb 09, 2026

GOP Could Gain Nearly 20 Seats In Congress Over SCOTUS VRA Ruling

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling in a Louisiana redistricting case that could affect how the Voting Rights Act is applied in election disputes. The case, Louisiana v. Callais, challenges a congressional map approved by Louisiana lawmakers that created a second majority Black district after earlier court challenges.

The dispute centers on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which allows private individuals and organizations to challenge election laws or redistricting plans they argue dilute the voting power of minority communities, The Intelligencer reported.

The Supreme Court previously ordered the case to be reargued, a step that signaled the justices may revisit how race can be considered when drawing congressional districts.

During oral arguments, the justices examined whether the use of race to create majority minority districts could conflict with the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment.

Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has been the primary legal tool for challenging redistricting plans since the Supreme Court’s 2013 decision in Shelby County v. Holder.

That ruling eliminated the law’s preclearance provision, which previously required certain states to obtain federal approval before implementing changes to election laws.

Legal analysts say the Court could issue a ruling that either limits the scope of Section 2 or establishes new standards for lawsuits challenging district maps.

A decision could also influence future redistricting efforts in states where one party controls the legislature and the governor’s office.

Analysts have pointed to several states, including Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, and Florida, where new congressional maps could potentially be considered ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, depending on the outcome of the case.

The Court could also determine when any changes to the legal standard would take effect.

In past election-related cases, the Court has cited the Purcell principle, which advises courts to avoid making changes to election rules close to an election.

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